Part 1 Developing An Alpaca Fiber Industry

cassie-cria I think everyone can agree that a commercial, large volume, “natural fiber marketplace” exists in the world today. I think it is also safe to say that alpaca is not currently part of that premier group. At least not in a significant way. So the question is, can alpaca fiber be improved to the level that it will compete at the premier level. I and many others believe it can… and will.

There may be a few breeders out there that remember the ongoing “discussion” about the “Value of Crimp” published in Alpacas magazine about 15 years ago. The articles showed a some disagreement in what characteristics should be developed in the ideal alpaca fleece as we moved forward.  The one area that there was no disagreement was that alpaca fiber needed to be finer. There was no disagreement that our future as a successful fiber industry was to produce cashmere quality fiber. We knew it was possible, as alpaca was found to be of that quality before the Spanish conquests. What I am surprised by is the speed in which improvements have been made. I am also surprised that many alpaca breeders don’t have that vision. maybe it is because so much change has taken place over the past 5 -10 years but for whatever the reason, I think it worthwhile to be aware that we have a purpose  and that our future  is linked to how successful we are in achieving that goal.

We all know what the cashmere marketplace wants. Alpaca can meet that need in more natural colors, with less production costs and other significant issues than what they are paying for today.  It’s simply a matter of individual breeders setting a goal and  move forward utilizing the tools that are available. I personally believe that we, as an industry, should set our goal to develop our herds to produce at least 6 lb blankets of 18 micron fiber and to hold that production for as long as possible. I think 6 years old is realistic, but longer would be preferred. I established the 6 lb goal because it is roughly equivalent to the density of a 12lb blanket of 24 micron fiber animal today. We have the tools to do better but I believe this would be a worthy first step for us to take. I’m sure there will be naysayers but that’s what helps make the goal worthwhile. Because if it didn’t require effort and planning then everyone would do it.

If that sounds plausible to you then the first step would be to identify what is currently being producing within our own herds. Once the starting point is identified then the process of arriving at the destination with future offspring is simply a matter of making the best decisions to move in the right direction.

alpacascarves Today, you have three main choices that are proven to help you make the needed changes. Some of you will want to make those changes based upon one, two or all three of the following: first. your own private evaluations and herd assessments, second, others may feel the show system is sufficient to help them and the third tool is the AOA EPD program. Our breeding improvement program is mainly based upon our personal assessment and the AOA EPD program. We do recognize that the show system can be of some help but it falls into third place when compared to the objective data of our main two tools. It would be nice if the show system could demonstrate they are making progress towards our objective.

The EPD program is pretty new to many alpaca breeders. Even with their acceptance in all other livestock industries some alpaca breeders still have their doubts. Next, I’ll try to address a few of the most frequent concerns I hear regarding epd’s…. “People Cheat”, “the test is flawed” and the “Australian Alpaca Testing system is better”. One is true, one is irrelevant and the other is false.

EPD’s …How Accurate is Accurate enough?

EPD's ...How Accurate is Accurate enough?

 

There’s some confusion about the term “accuracy” when it comes to EPD’s. It would make common sense that if something had a low accuracy that it would not be very reliable…correct? No, that is not how the term ” is used with EPD’s. EPD Accuracy simply describes the Trait Value prediction in greater detail. A very important concept to remember is that EPD’s are correct, or better than predicted, 85% of the time….regardless of the Accuracy. Accuracy defines a range, plus or minus the trait value that can be expected. Just like Las Vegas, EPDs don’t like to be wrong. The Accuracy Range looks more like the point spread used in sports betting. A “low accuracy” represents a wider range of acceptable outcomes. For example, according to the Table 7 of 2013 EPD Producers Report (Table 8 for suris) an accuracy of .3 (low) indicates that the result could be .82 of a micron less than or greater than the trait value predicted. In other words a relatively “Low Accuracy” prediction is just as reliable as a high accuracy prediction. The only difference is the low accuracy prediction is providing a wider range of what can be expected.

So, I think the next logical question is “How reliable are EPD predictions anyway?” As I stated above, my personal, short, unscientific, quick and simple answer is that EPD’s trait values will be as good or better than predicted at least 85% of the time. However, if you were to ask your college statistics professor he would say that EPD predictions are calculated to within 2 standard deviations (68%). The remaining 32% will result in an outcome that is better or worse than the prediction. I frequently refer to this “unknown group of 32%” as the “freaks”. There are good freaks and poor freaks. Being the optimist that I am I say that at least half of the 32% will be good freaks and feel confident with expecting 85% reliability. This is the link to the 2013 Producers Report.

EPD Video #1- The Basics


This video is the first in a series of screencasts to help explain how EPD’s work and why they can be such a valuable tool for livestock improvement. I am not a scientist, PhD or math expert. I put this together as I understand the system and hopefully it will help you too.

Feel free to email us if you have any questions.